Player Funnel



There seems to be a lot of talk on the forums about being on the bottom tier in a match. Just some speculation on why that might be the case.

It is inconceivable to me that the player base for WoT is not a pyramid structure with more noobs than elites. This simply has to be true, right? And those elites are going to have and play higher tier tanks than their less experienced counterparts. Therefore, lets imagine that you have the following distribution of tanks, for the sake of argument:

Tier 10: 50 tanks

Tier 9: 70 tanks

Tier 8: 100 tanks

Tier 7: 150 tanks

Tier 6: 225 tanks

Tier 5: 400 tanks

Tier 4: 900 tanks

Tier 3: 1,500 tanks

Tier 2: 2,500 tanks

Tier 1: 6,000 tanks

You could argue that the pyramid is more narrow (more elites) or more wide (more noobs), fine; go for it. I'm using this as my starting point.

So in order to create games for Tier 10 players, lets say that matchmaker pulls 40 Tier 9s up into games (90 tanks total, 3 matches of 30 tanks each). The Tier 10 players are competing only against their own tier of tank, or 1 less. No big deal. And those 40 Tier 9s are on bottom tier in those games.

But now you only have 30 tier 9s that can be top tier in their games. So the matchmaker pulls even more Tier 8s into games with them, so lets say that it pulls 60 Tier 8s for another 90 tank total. That leaves only 40 tier 8s remaining. So they pull 80 Tier 7s to create 120 matches of 8s and 7s. This leaves 70 Tier 7s, so they need even more low tier guys for their games. And so on. And so on. Each time you step down the pyramid, you are pulling proportionally more players up to be the lower tiers because you don't have as many players at that current tier level.

Now in practice, the matchmaker is going to pull from up to 2 tiers down and I only pulled from 1 tier down in the example above. So my logic here is being conservative, in reality this effect would be even more pronounced. The matchmaker is going to be sucking up a lot more lower tier folks to put into these games than I am assuming here.

It's like a funnel. You need to put a LOT of noobs at the bottom and they have to rise. Since the matchmaker is going to suck people up to a higher tier for matches, you need way more people at the next tier down to absorb that loss, otherwise almost all of those people will be sucked up and the process will replicate going down the heirarchy. For example, imagine that you still had 50 Tier 10s, but 300 Tier 9s. Then the Tier 9s could easily absorb the loss of 40 tanks for the Tier 10 matches and have a ton of tanks left. But the fewer Tier 9s you have, the more of an impact that loss becomes.

The only solution is to RECRUIT MORE PLAYERS and TRAIN THEM UP so that they can fatten the pyramid. The fewer noobs you recruit, the slimmer the pyramid becomes, the more likely you are going to be lower tier in a match.

Am I making sense here? Am I missing some important variable?